Eastern Michigan vs. Central Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EMUTeam statsCMU
- Q4 2:55CMUTommy Lazzaro 6 Yd Run (Ryan Tice Kick)16–42
- Q4 13:36EMUMathew Sexton 5 Yd pass from Mike Glass III (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–35
- Q3 0:45CMUJonathan Ward 86 Yd Run (Ryan Tice Kick)10–35
- Q3 4:11EMUMike Glass III 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)10–28
- Q3 7:50CMUKobe Lewis 28 Yd Run (Ryan Tice Kick)3–28
- Q2 10:31CMUJonathan Ward 64 Yd pass from David Moore (Ryan Tice Kick)3–21
- Q2 12:38CMUKalil Pimpleton 80 Yd pass from David Moore (Ryan Tice Kick)3–14
- Q1 3:43EMUChad Ryland 42 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 12:21CMUJonathan Ward 3 Yd Run (Ryan Tice Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- EMU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.3 vs 3rd & 6.7
- EMU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassMike Glass III 20/34, 207 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushWillie Parker 8 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecMathew Sexton 5 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDavid Moore 15/24, 279 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJonathan Ward 12 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKalil Pimpleton 5 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCMU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:38CMU +23%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 80 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
- Q2 10:31CMU +20%
David Moore pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 64 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
- Q1 12:21CMU +18%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
- Q1 3:43EMU +7%
Chad Ryland 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:50CMU +7%
Kobe Lewis run for 28 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
- Q2 5:18CMU +5%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by Kobie Beltram
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Central Michigan?
Eastern Michigan 16, Central Michigan 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked EMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| EMU | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 285 | Total yards | 587 |
| 222 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 63 | Rushing yards | 308 |
| 22 | First downs | 24 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 23/39 | Comp/Att | 15/24 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 11.6 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 6.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-57 | Penalties | 10-103 |
| 27:48 | Possession | 32:12 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:21 CMU punt on 4th & 1 at CMU 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:55CMUTommy Lazzaro 6 Yd Run (Ryan Tice Kick)16–42
- Q4 13:36EMUMathew Sexton 5 Yd pass from Mike Glass III (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–35
- Q3 0:45CMUJonathan Ward 86 Yd Run (Ryan Tice Kick)10–35
- Q3 4:11EMUMike Glass III 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)10–28
- Q3 7:50CMUKobe Lewis 28 Yd Run (Ryan Tice Kick)3–28
- Q2 10:31CMUJonathan Ward 64 Yd pass from David Moore (Ryan Tice Kick)3–21
- Q2 12:38CMUKalil Pimpleton 80 Yd pass from David Moore (Ryan Tice Kick)3–14
- Q1 3:43EMUChad Ryland 42 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 12:21CMUJonathan Ward 3 Yd Run (Ryan Tice Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CMU Elo 1173, EMU Elo 1432 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CMU +8 (31% to win) — 4.0 points clear of EMU's market line of +4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#20 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #81 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Central Michigan leads 34–15–2 · 49% have been one-possession games
| EMU | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.1 (#104) | CORE overall | -0.3 (#65) |
| +2 / +13 | offense / defense | +1 / +1 |
| 2.64 | points / drive | 2.48 |
| 2.70 | allowed / drive | 2.16 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →