Florida Atlantic vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsMRSH
- Q4 1:35MRSHAlex Thomson 3 Yd Run (Justin Rohrwasser Kick)7–31
- Q3 6:18MRSHArmani Levias 13 Yd pass from Alex Thomson (Justin Rohrwasser Kick)7–24
- Q3 13:52MRSHTyler King 17 Yd Run (Justin Rohrwasser Kick)7–17
- Q2 3:26MRSHArmani Levias 29 Yd pass from Alex Thomson (Justin Rohrwasser Kick)7–10
- Q2 10:52FAUHarrison Bryant 2 Yd pass from Chris Robison (Vladimir Rivas Kick)7–3
- Q2 14:23MRSHJustin Rohrwasser 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassChris Robison 18/35, 223 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- RushKerrith Whyte 10 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecJovon Durante 7 REC, 114 YDS
- PassAlex Thomson 13/24, 102 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTyler King 21 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- RecArmani Levias 3 REC, 47 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMRSH up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:26MRSH +27%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Armani Levias for 29 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
- Q2 10:52FAU +21%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 2 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
- Q3 13:52MRSH +20%
Tyler King run for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
- Q3 6:18MRSH +15%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Armani Levias for 13 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
- Q2 14:23MRSH +9%
Justin Rohrwasser 40 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 14:29MRSH +6%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Tyre Brady
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Marshall?
Florida Atlantic 7, Marshall 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MRSH) was correct.
| FAU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 359 | Total yards | 335 |
| 240 | Passing yards | 102 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 233 |
| 16 | First downs | 18 |
| 3-17 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/42 | Comp/Att | 13/24 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 4.3 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-69 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 28:02 | Possession | 31:58 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:38 MRSH punt on 4th & 1 at FAU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:35MRSHAlex Thomson 3 Yd Run (Justin Rohrwasser Kick)7–31
- Q3 6:18MRSHArmani Levias 13 Yd pass from Alex Thomson (Justin Rohrwasser Kick)7–24
- Q3 13:52MRSHTyler King 17 Yd Run (Justin Rohrwasser Kick)7–17
- Q2 3:26MRSHArmani Levias 29 Yd pass from Alex Thomson (Justin Rohrwasser Kick)7–10
- Q2 10:52FAUHarrison Bryant 2 Yd pass from Chris Robison (Vladimir Rivas Kick)7–3
- Q2 14:23MRSHJustin Rohrwasser 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1462, FAU Elo 1521 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH PK (51% to win) — 2.5 points clear of MRSH's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#44 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #102 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Marshall leads 8–1 · Marshall has won 4 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| FAU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.2 (#53) | CORE overall | -1.6 (#74) |
| +4 / +1 | offense / defense | -7 / -5 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 2.08 |
| 2.51 | allowed / drive | 1.64 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →