Virginia Tech vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 9:08VTPhil Patterson 10 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)31–14
- Q4 13:47DUKEDeon Jackson 1 Yd Run (Collin Wareham Kick)24–14
- Q3 9:35VTSteven Peoples 6 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)24–7
- Q2 11:34VTDalton Keene 67 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:55VTDamon Hazelton 27 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:25DUKENoah Gray 23 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Collin Wareham Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:34VTBrian Johnson 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- VT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassRyan Willis 17/27, 332 YDS, 3 TD
- RushSteven Peoples 16 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDalton Keene 2 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDaniel Jones 23/35, 226 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushBrittain Brown 12 CAR, 35 YDS
- RecChris Taylor 5 REC, 58 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVT up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:55VT +20%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 27 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
- Q2 11:34VT +19%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 67 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
- Q1 3:25DUKE +19%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 23 yds for a TD, (Collin Wareham KICK)
- Q4 9:08VT +16%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Phil Patterson for 10 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
- Q3 9:35VT +12%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
- Q4 13:47DUKE +12%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Wareham KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Duke?
Virginia Tech 31, Duke 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| VT | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 413 | Total yards | 327 |
| 332 | Passing yards | 256 |
| 81 | Rushing yards | 71 |
| 17 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 4-16 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 17/28 | Comp/Att | 25/39 |
| 11.9 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-26 | Penalties | 3-15 |
| 30:52 | Possession | 29:08 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:08VTPhil Patterson 10 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)31–14
- Q4 13:47DUKEDeon Jackson 1 Yd Run (Collin Wareham Kick)24–14
- Q3 9:35VTSteven Peoples 6 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)24–7
- Q2 11:34VTDalton Keene 67 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:55VTDamon Hazelton 27 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:25DUKENoah Gray 23 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Collin Wareham Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:34VTBrian Johnson 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1681, VT Elo 1682 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -2.4 (57% to win) — 4.1 points clear of VT's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#56 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #68 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #43 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →Virginia Tech leads 19–12 · Duke has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| VT | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.4 (#84) | CORE overall | -1.3 (#73) |
| +3 / +6 | offense / defense | -3 / -2 |
| 2.08 | points / drive | 1.95 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →