Stanford vs. UCLA: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Stanford6-5

▸

UCLA9-2

Final

Rose BowlConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
STAN	7	14	7	3	31
UCLA	7	3	0	0	10

STANTeam statsUCLA

436Total yards262

234Pass162

202Rush100

22First downs17

9-143rd down5-14

0Turnovers1

37:49Possession22:02

Q4 10:40STANJordan Williamson 34 Yd Field Goal 31–10
Q3 9:16STANRemound Wright 2 Yd Run (Jordan Williamson Kick)28–10
Q2 0:41STANDevon Cajuste 37 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Jordan Williamson Kick)21–10
Q2 6:24STANMichael Rector 22 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Jordan Williamson Kick)14–10
Q2 11:46UCLAKa'imi Fairbairn 42 Yd Field Goal 7–10
Q1 6:00STANRemound Wright 1 Yd Run (Jordan Williamson Kick)7–7
Q1 11:18UCLAThomas Duarte 15 Yd pass from Brett Hundley (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Model line

UCLA −4.3

market UCLA −5.5

Biggest swing

STAN +22%

Q2 6:24

Against the number

STAN covered

line UCLA −5.5

UCLA favored ↑50%STAN favored ↓

GridpexSTAN 100%

Closing line

UCLA −5.5

Closing total

48.5

Model line

UCLA −4.3

Actual result

STAN 31 – 10 UCLA

consensus, liveUCLA −4.51.0 toward STAN

Stanford

PassKevin Hogan 16/19, 234 YDS, 2 TD
RushRemound Wright 15 CAR, 64 YDS, 2 TD
RecAustin Hooper 3 REC, 51 YDS

UCLA

PassBrett Hundley 17/32, 146 YDS, 1 TD
RushPaul Perkins 17 CAR, 116 YDS
RecThomas Duarte 4 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD

25.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

132

Points / snap

0.31

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

STAN up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

STAN went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWisconsin vs Buffalo38-17 WKansas State vs Troy42-13 WTCU vs Nicholls41-6 WLafayette vs Columbia24-3 WTulane vs Southern Miss21-3

Q2 6:24STAN +22%
Michael Rector 22 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Jordan Williamson Kick)
Q2 0:41STAN +21%
Devon Cajuste 37 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Jordan Williamson Kick)
Q3 9:16STAN +18%
Remound Wright 2 Yd Run (Jordan Williamson Kick)
Q1 6:00STAN +17%
Remound Wright 1 Yd Run (Jordan Williamson Kick)
Q1 11:18UCLA +16%
Thomas Duarte 15 Yd pass from Brett Hundley (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)
Q2 11:46UCLA +8%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 42 yd FG GOOD

FAQ

What was the final score of Stanford vs. UCLA?

Stanford 31, UCLA 10.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked UCLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

STAN

UCLA

43%

Success rate

39%

0.93

EPA / pass

-0.28

0.16

EPA / rush

0.42

39%

Early-down success

41%

70%

Pass success

26%

31%

Rush success

67%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

22%

Stuffed rush rate

31%

Pass rate

69%

6.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.1

STAN

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

UCLA

6.1 yards to go on 3rd down

67 scrimmage snaps

STAN		UCLA
436	Total yards	262
234	Passing yards	162
202	Rushing yards	100
22	First downs	17
9-14	3rd down	5-14
0-0	4th down	1-4
16/19	Comp/Att	20/41
12.3	Yards per pass	4.0
4.5	Yards per rush	3.8
0	Turnovers	1
7-65	Penalties	4-38
37:49	Possession	22:02

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

UCLA 1826

STAN 1778

Projected spread

UCLA -4.3

incl. home edge

Model pick

UCLA

63% to win

Market spread

UCLA -5.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

63%

UCLA (no market)

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1826, STAN Elo 1778 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -4.3 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2014

nationally ranked

STAN2014 season · national rank shownUCLA

388.678th

Total yards / game

467.823rd

5.950th

Yards / play

6.133rd

229.866th

Passing yards / game

258.343rd

158.872nd

Rushing yards / game

209.534th

42.4%44th

3rd down %

43.1%40th

282.43rd

Yards allowed / game

398.565th

35.8%28th

3rd down % allowed

39.7%64th

-598th

Turnover margin

060th

5.855th

Penalties / game

8.0117th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Stanford were +4.5 — a 39% shot

#44 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #73 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.

The 2014 upset archive →

The series95 meetings since 1925

UCLA leads 49–43–3 · UCLA has won 3 straight · 44% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2014

STAN		UCLA
2.32	points / drive	2.20
1.40	allowed / drive	1.91
31%	three-and-outs	23%

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

STANTeam statsUCLA

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Stanford vs. UCLA?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2014

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Stanford vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap

STANTeam statsUCLA

How the model called it

What was the final score of Stanford vs. UCLA?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups