Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsFIU
- Q4 1:58FIUAnthon Samuel 9 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)10–38
- Q4 8:23FIUAlex McGough 1 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)10–31
- Q3 3:39FIURichard Leonard 100 Yd Fumble Return (Austin Taylor Kick)10–24
- Q3 11:18FIUAustin Taylor 37 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 9:29FAUJay Warren 31 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)10–14
- Q2 11:35FIUAnthon Samuel 1 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)3–14
- Q1 7:50FIUAlex Gardner 24 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:28FAUGreg Joseph 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FAU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassJaquez Johnson 19/42, 225 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJaquez Johnson 10 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecLucky Whitehead 8 REC, 84 YDS
- PassAlex McGough 18/29, 160 YDS
- RushAlex Gardner 21 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJonnu Smith 7 REC, 62 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:29FAU +22%
Jay Warren run for 31 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
- Q2 11:35FIU +21%
Anthon Samuel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
- Q1 7:50FIU +18%
Alex Gardner run for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
- Q3 3:39FIU +16%
Jay Warren run for 3 yds Jay Warren fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Richard Leonard, return for 100 yds for a TD (Austin Taylor KICK)
- Q3 11:18FIU +13%
Austin Taylor 37 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 6:46FIU +9%
Alex McGough pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International?
Florida Atlantic 10, Florida International 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FAU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FAU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 383 | Total yards | 345 |
| 225 | Passing yards | 160 |
| 158 | Rushing yards | 185 |
| 22 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/42 | Comp/Att | 18/29 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 8-51 |
| 28:05 | Possession | 31:55 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:23 FAU go for it on 4th & 10 at FAU 41. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:58FIUAnthon Samuel 9 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)10–38
- Q4 8:23FIUAlex McGough 1 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)10–31
- Q3 3:39FIURichard Leonard 100 Yd Fumble Return (Austin Taylor Kick)10–24
- Q3 11:18FIUAustin Taylor 37 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 9:29FAUJay Warren 31 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)10–14
- Q2 11:35FIUAnthon Samuel 1 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)3–14
- Q1 7:50FIUAlex Gardner 24 Yd Run (Austin Taylor Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:28FAUGreg Joseph 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1134, FAU Elo 1345 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU +6 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #53 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Florida Atlantic leads 16–6 · 18% have been one-possession games
| FAU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.86 | points / drive | 1.29 |
| 2.72 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 36% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →