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FRES
Fresno State
FINAL
41
–
14
Final
🔥 FRES 17-0 run
SJSU
●
San José State
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
T
FRES
3
18
3
17
41
SJSU
0
7
0
7
14
← Game
Fresno State at San José State
2025 · Week 14 · CEFCU Stadium
Replay mode · scrub the timeline
Win Probability — SJSU (top) vs FRES (bottom)
consensus
house model
Q2
Q3
Q4
SJSU ▲
FRES ▲
SJSU 100%
50%
FRES 100%
⏮
◀
▶
▶
⏭
Play
154
/ 154
1×
2×
4×
⧉ Share moment
Jump to
Kickoff
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Final
← → step · space play · drag chart to scrub
Drives — tap to jump
PUNT
SJSU
5p·24y
PUNT
FRES
4p·6y
PUNT
SJSU
4p·5y
FG
FRES
7p·53y
INT
SJSU
6p·20y
FG
FRES
12p·72y
INT
SJSU
2p·6y
TD
FRES
5p·37y
PUNT
SJSU
4p·8y
TD
FRES
5p·83y
FUM
FRES
2p·19y
MISS
SJSU
6p·54y
TD
FRES
9p·75y
—
SJSU
7p·48y
—
FRES
3p·11y
PUNT
FRES
7p·18y
INT
SJSU
5p·37y
FG
FRES
4p·50y
—
SJSU
11p·63y
PUNT
FRES
4p·12y
PUNT
SJSU
8p·18y
TD
FRES
6p·29y
TD
SJSU
6p·39y
TD
FRES
7p·75y
INT
SJSU
2p·21y
FG
FRES
4p·39y
INT
SJSU
1p·0y
TD
FRES
4p·41y
—
SJSU
4p·26y
FRES
41
–
14
SJSU
FINAL
100%
0%
Win Probability
consensus
FRES
100%
0%
SJSU
House model
FRES 100%
Live Line
house price
Live spread
FRES -25.4
open +3.5
· ▲ 21.9
Proj. total
55
O/U 45.333333333333336
· OVER pace
Live moneyline
FRES -9900
/
SJSU +9900
Betting Read
model vs the number
Against the spread
SJSU +3.5
FRES 100%
0% SJSU
Total
O/U 45.333333333333336
Over 100%
0% Under
Situation
FINAL
SJSU ball
2nd & 3 · SJSU 43
SJSU
FRES
10
20
30
40
50
40
30
20
10
FRES
Timeouts
SJSU
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush left for 8 yards gain to the FS49 (#13 C.Cole), 1ST DOWN
Current Drive
#29
SJSU
from SJSU 25
4
plays
26
yards
+2.3
drive EPA
Leverage
this play
Win-prob added
-12.6
Swung to
FRES
FRES
Momentum
SJSU
Game tension index
VIX-style WP volatility
64
Live Efficiency
FRES · SJSU
620
Total yds
369
7.5
Yds/play
5.2
+0.03
EPA/play
-0.15
45%
Success %
39%
8
Explosive (20+)
4
3
Turnovers
5
Game Leaders
final
FRES
passing
E.J. Warner
15/20, 138 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Elijah Gilliam
9 car, 92 yds, 2 TD
receiving
Josiah Freeman
6 rec, 76 yds, 1 TD
SJSU
passing
Xavier Ward
8/21, 94 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Steve Chavez-Soto
9 car, 50 yds
receiving
Danny Scudero
4 rec, 57 yds
Biggest Swings
where it turned
-27
Q1 4:31
(04:37) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FS48 (#91 Q.Likio; #50 G.Faga)
-21
Q2 10:23
(10:30) #0 J.Arceneaux rush left for 3 yards gain to the FS33 (#0 C.Presley), out of bounds
-19
Q2 1:45
(01:51) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete deep middle to #5 J.Freeman caught at SJSU15, for 37 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:45, 1ST DOWN #5 J.Freeman rush attempt Successful
+18
Q2 7:02
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel pass complete short right to #10 D.Scudero caught at SJSU50, for 8 yards to the FS38 (#1 J.Embry), out of bounds
+16
Q2 1:42
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass complete short right to #4 K.Shoels caught at SJSU33, for 8 yards to the SJSU33 (#1 J.Embry), out of bounds PENALTY FS Offside declined
-16
Q2 14:08
(14:14) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at SJSU22, for 16 yards to the SJSU21 (#0 C.Presley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Play Feed
tap to jump
Q4 0:03
+0.7 EPA
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush left for 8 yards gain to the FS49 (#13 C.Cole), 1ST DOWN
41-14
Q4 0:40
+0.7 EPA
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush right for 7 yards gain to the SJSU43 (#20 R.Regan; #57 Z.Rix)
41-14
Q4 0:59
+0.6 EPA
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU36 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.; #57 Z.Rix), 1ST DOWN
41-14
Q4 1:46
+0.3 EPA
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SJSU31 (#11 J.Davis)
41-14
Q4 1:52
+4.6 EPA
(02:00) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 34 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:52, 1ST DOWN #46 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown)
41-14
Q4 2:28
+0.1 EPA
(02:34) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 5 yards gain to the SJSU34 (#1 J.Pollard)
34-14
Q4 3:13
-0.6 EPA
(03:20) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU39 (#90 J.Moe)
34-14
