Fresno State vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsSJSU
- Q4 1:52FRESElijah Gilliam 34 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)41–14
- Q4 4:07FRESDylan Lynch 33 Yd Field Goal 34–14
- Q4 6:57FRESElijah Gilliam 2 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)31–14
- Q4 10:59SJSUViliami Teu 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)24–14
- Q3 8:20FRESDylan Lynch 41 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q2 1:45FRESJosiah Freeman 37 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Josiah Freeman Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–7
- Q2 7:50SJSUJordan Pollard 58 Yd Interception Return (Denis Lynch Kick)13–7
- Q2 11:44FRESBrandon Ramirez 2 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)13–0
- Q2 14:52FRESDylan Lynch 41 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 6:16FRESDylan Lynch 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassE.J. Warner 15/20, 138 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushElijah Gilliam 9 CAR, 92 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJosiah Freeman 6 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- PassXavier Ward 8/21, 94 YDS, 3 INT
- RushSteve Chavez-Soto 9 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecDanny Scudero 4 REC, 57 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 10:59SJSU +6%
Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush left for 1 yard gain to the FS00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. San José State?
Fresno State 41, San José State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
| FRES | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 397 | Total yards | 227 |
| 138 | Passing yards | 114 |
| 259 | Rushing yards | 113 |
| 16 | First downs | 14 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 15/20 | Comp/Att | 11/34 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 3.4 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 5-60 | Penalties | 3-40 |
| 39:07 | Possession | 20:53 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:20 FRES field goal on 4th & 1 at SJSU 23. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:52FRESElijah Gilliam 34 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)41–14
- Q4 4:07FRESDylan Lynch 33 Yd Field Goal 34–14
- Q4 6:57FRESElijah Gilliam 2 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)31–14
- Q4 10:59SJSUViliami Teu 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)24–14
- Q3 8:20FRESDylan Lynch 41 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q2 1:45FRESJosiah Freeman 37 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Josiah Freeman Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–7
- Q2 7:50SJSUJordan Pollard 58 Yd Interception Return (Denis Lynch Kick)13–7
- Q2 11:44FRESBrandon Ramirez 2 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)13–0
- Q2 14:52FRESDylan Lynch 41 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 6:16FRESDylan Lynch 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1185, FRES Elo 1478 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU +9.3 (28% to win) — 5.8 points clear of FRES's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFresno State leads 39–31 · Fresno State has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| FRES | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.4 (#73) | CORE overall | -4.3 (#78) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | -1 / +3 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 1.49 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →