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AF
Air Force
FINAL
26
–
16
Final
SJSU
●
San José State
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
T
AF
0
16
0
10
26
SJSU
3
0
3
10
16
← Game
Air Force at San José State
2025 · Week 11 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win Probability — SJSU (top) vs AF (bottom)
consensus
house model
Q2
Q3
Q4
SJSU ▲
AF ▲
SJSU 100%
50%
AF 100%
⏮
◀
▶
▶
⏭
Play
155
/ 155
1×
2×
4×
⧉ Share moment
Jump to
Kickoff
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Final
← → step · space play · drag chart to scrub
Drives — tap to jump
PUNT
AF
4p·1y
FG
SJSU
7p·78y
PUNT
AF
4p·2y
FUM
SJSU
7p·44y
TD
AF
18p·156y
INT
SJSU
3p·30y
TD
AF
8p·45y
INT
SJSU
10p·115y
PUNT
AF
8p·26y
SAF
SJSU
1p·-6y
—
AF
7p·20y
—
SJSU
5p·57y
FG
SJSU
11p·118y
PUNT
AF
13p·42y
TD
SJSU
12p·95y
TD
AF
10p·60y
FG
SJSU
9p·93y
FG
AF
12p·83y
—
SJSU
6p·94y
AF
26
–
16
SJSU
FINAL
100%
0%
Win Probability
consensus
AF
100%
0%
SJSU
House model
AF 100%
Live Line
house price
Live spread
AF -8.4
open -6.0
· ▲ 14.4
Proj. total
42
O/U 67.83333333333333
· UNDER pace
Live moneyline
AF -9900
/
SJSU +9900
Betting Read
model vs the number
Against the spread
SJSU -6.0
AF 100%
0% SJSU
Total
O/U 67.83333333333333
Over 0%
100% Under
Situation
FINAL
SJSU ball
3rd & 20 · SJSU 27
SJSU
AF
10
20
30
40
50
40
30
20
10
AF
Timeouts
SJSU
End of 4th quarter.
Current Drive
#19
SJSU
from SJSU 25
6
plays
94
yards
+9.1
drive EPA
Leverage
this play
Win-prob added
-7.9
Swung to
AF
AF
Momentum
SJSU
Game tension index
VIX-style WP volatility
59
Live Efficiency
AF · SJSU
435
Total yds
718
5.2
Yds/play
10.1
+0.18
EPA/play
+0.34
32%
Success %
54%
4
Explosive (20+)
12
0
Turnovers
3
Game Leaders
final
AF
passing
Liam Szarka
5/10, 41 yds, 1 TD
rushing
Owen Allen
20 car, 109 yds
receiving
Bruin Fleischmann
2 rec, 29 yds
SJSU
passing
Walker Eget
27/42, 334 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Steve Chavez-Soto
9 car, 49 yds, 1 TD
receiving
Leland Smith
9 rec, 144 yds
Biggest Swings
where it turned
+29
Q4 14:20
(14:23) Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USAFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:20, 1ST DOWN #48 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos)
-20
Q4 9:11
(09:15) #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #18 Q.Smith caught at SJSU02, for 12 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:11, 1ST DOWN #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)
-20
Q2 12:59
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass intercepted by #45 J.Reese at USAFA44 #45 J.Reese return 11 yards to the SJSU45 (#1 L.Smith)
-19
Q2 13:45
(13:48) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 3 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:45 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)
-13
Q4 14:12
(14:20) No Huddle #5 D.Carson rush right for 1 yard gain to the USAFA26 (#4 T.Latu) PENALTY SJSU Personal Foul (#26 E.Powell) 15 yards from USAFA26 to USAFA41, 1ST DOWN
-11
Q4 0:25
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #14 M.Coleman caught at SJSU31, for 12 yards to the SJSU37, out of bounds at SJSU37, 1ST DOWN
Play Feed
tap to jump
Q4 0:00
+4.2 EPA
End of 4th quarter.
26-16
Q4 0:07
+4.2 EPA
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete deep left to #1 L.Smith caught at USAFA37, for 36 yards to the USAFA37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
26-16
Q4 0:07
-0.1 EPA
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete deep left to #1 L.Smith thrown to SJSU50
26-16
Q4 0:12
-0.3 EPA
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete deep left to #1 L.Smith thrown to USAFA40 broken up by #9 L.Brown
26-16
Q4 0:25
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #4 K.Shoels caught at USAFA49, for 14 yards to the USAFA49 (#4 M.Seiken) PENALTY SJSU Holding (#62 T.Chen) 10 yards from SJSU37 to SJSU27. NO PLAY
26-16
Q4 0:25
+1.0 EPA
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #14 M.Coleman caught at SJSU31, for 12 yards to the SJSU37, out of bounds at SJSU37, 1ST DOWN
26-16
Q4 0:31
(00:32) #96 R.Tubbs field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney), clock 00:31
26-16
