Kelly/Shorts StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CMU 1232
WMU 1546
Projected spread
CMU +7.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
WMU
71% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
29%
CMU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (CMU Elo 1232, WMU Elo 1546) plus home-field advantage. That projects CMU +7.3 (29% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelWMU 71% · CMU 29%
Pick: WMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
WMU2025 season · national rank shownCMU
343.0103rd
Total yards / game
332.2112th5.2109th
Yards / play
5.5Key matchups · Pro
- CMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge CMU.
- WMU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. CMU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge WMU.
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. CMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge CMU.
FAQ
Who will win Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Western Michigan with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan?
The model projects Western Michigan by 7.3.
What time is Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Western Michigan at 71% to win, projecting Western Michigan by 7.3.