Elliott T. Bowers StadiumESPN2Conference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SHSU 994
WKU 1408
Projected spread
SHSU +21.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
WKU
94% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
6%
SHSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (SHSU Elo 994, WKU Elo 1408) plus home-field advantage. That projects SHSU +21.2 (6% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelWKU 94% · SHSU 6%
Pick: WKU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
WKU2025 season · national rank shownSHSU
406.845th
Total yards / game
316.8121st5.858th
Yards / play
5.0Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. WKU pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge WKU.
- WKU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge SHSU.
FAQ
Who will win Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Western Kentucky with a 94% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston?
The model projects Western Kentucky by 21.2.
What time is Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston and what channel is it on?
Thu, Oct 15, 12:00 AM on ESPN2, at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Western Kentucky at 94% to win, projecting Western Kentucky by 21.2.