Washington vs. Oregon Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 2.2 toward 
ORE
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | ORE −15.5 | ORE −17.7 |
| ORE win | 84% | 88% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Oregon gets at Washington: 2nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 66th at keeping everything in front of them. Washington projects no clear way in against Oregon.
HowOREattacks
WASH
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 48% this season, 2 games
ORE1.57#2 of 138WASH1.35#66 of 138
The two teams
Washington
Washington throws it: Jedd Fisch's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 9th at generating havoc. The way in is 138th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −19.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Washington has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss27.8%#9 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down53%#11 of 138
- Defenserunning it-0.11#11 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.99#138 of 138
Oregon
Oregon throws it: Dan Lanning's offenses have been pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 2nd at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+11.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −16.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Oregon has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.57#2 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve29%#4 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.05#5 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 1838, WASH Elo 1752 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE -17.7 (88% to win) — 2.2 points clear of ORE's market line of -15.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
WASH94th93rdOREORE58th56thWASHThrough the air
WASH56th109thOREORE38th58thWASHOn the ground
WASH102nd108thOREORE114th43rdWASHStaying on the field
WASH104th43rdOREORE103rd36thWASHTaking care of it
WASH1st53rdOREORE68th3rdWASH
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWashington leads 56–46–4 · Oregon has won 2 straight · 49% have been one-possession games
| WASH | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.9 (#22) | CORE overall | +24.6 (#7) |
| +4 / -12 | offense / defense | +15 / -10 |
| 1.89 | points / drive | 2.85 |
| 0.91 | allowed / drive | 2.25 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 0% |
| +13 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Washington vs. Oregon?
Gridpex's model favors Oregon with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Washington vs. Oregon?
The model projects Oregon by 17.7.
What time is Washington vs. Oregon and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Autzen Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →