Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (SDSU Elo 1528, WSU Elo 1549) plus home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -3.6 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pick: SDSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Gridpex's model favors San Diego State with a 61% win probability.
The model projects San Diego State by 3.6.
Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM on CBSSN, at Snapdragon Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this San Diego State at 61% to win, projecting San Diego State by 3.6.
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