Washington State vs. Oregon State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Washington State gets at Oregon State: 71st at throwing it, against a unit 108th at defending the pass. Where Oregon State gets at Washington State: 24th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 76th at stuffing runs at the line.
How
WSUattacks
ORST
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected · 1 game in
WSU-0.13#71 of 138ORST+0.44#108 of 138
HowORSTattacksWSU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected · 1 game in
ORST4.8%#24 of 138WSU20.3%#76 of 138
The two teams
Washington State
Washington State is in year 1 under Kirby Moore. The strengths are defensive, led by 22nd at closing out passing downs. The way in is 136th at hitting chunk plays.
Washington State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 21% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve34%#22 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.17#34 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.98#136 of 138
Oregon State
Oregon State is in year 1 under JaMarcus Shephard. The strengths are offensive, led by 24th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 128th at running it, and they are 119th at throwing it.
Oregon State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 15% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line4.8%#24 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it-0.07#128 of 138
- Offensethrowing it+0.29#119 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss21.6%#118 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1259, WSU Elo 1536 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST +7.1 (33% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
WSU129th130thORSTORST93rd117thWSUThrough the air
WSU126th125thORSTORST5th97thWSUOn the ground
WSU117th126thORSTORST137th125thWSUStaying on the field
WSU134th127thORSTORST121st116thWSUTaking care of it
WSU118th53rdORSTORST1st53rdWSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWashington State leads 56–44–3 · 42% have been one-possession games
| WSU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.4 (#47) | CORE overall | -7.8 (#99) |
| -2 / -8 | offense / defense | -4 / +4 |
| 0.91 | points / drive | 2.10 |
| 1.89 | allowed / drive | 3.09 |
| 45% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Washington State vs. Oregon State?
Gridpex's model favors Washington State with a 67% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Washington State vs. Oregon State?
The model projects Washington State by 7.1.
What time is Washington State vs. Oregon State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 17, 6:00 PM ET, at Reser Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →