UTSA vs. Texas Prediction, Odds & Pick — Sep 19, 2026

Gridpex Model Prediction

Power rating (Elo)

TEX 1926

UTSA 1668

Projected spread

TEX -13.9

incl. home edge

Model pick

TEX

85% to win

Market spread

—

sportsbook line

Model edge

None

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

85%

TEX (no market)

Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TEX Elo 1926, UTSA Elo 1668) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEX -13.9 (85% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Pregame Win Probability

Gridpex modelUTSA 15% · TEX 85%

Pick: TEX

Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.

Season stats — 2025

UTSA2025 season · national rank shownTEX

421.328th

Total yards / game

388.769th

6.131st

Yards / play

6.042nd

247.246th

Passing yards / game

250.744th

174.152nd

Rushing yards / game

138.090th

39.7%71st

3rd down %

39.2%75th

372.866th

Yards allowed / game

338.840th

34.6%29th

3rd down % allowed

33.0%18th

+627th

Turnover margin

+144th

7.3115th

Penalties / game

8.3134th

Key matchups · Pro

UTSA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. TEX rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge UTSA.
UTSA pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. TEX pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge UTSA.
TEX rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. UTSA rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge UTSA.

FAQ

Who will win UTSA vs. Texas?

Gridpex's model favors Texas with a 85% win probability.

What's the predicted spread for UTSA vs. Texas?

The model projects Texas by 13.9.

What time is UTSA vs. Texas and what channel is it on?

Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 AM on SECN+, at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.

Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.

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Gridiron IQ Model

Pinned · the model's take

I make this Texas at 85% to win, projecting Texas by 13.9.