UTEP vs. New Mexico Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where UTEP gets at New Mexico: 1st at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 66th at keeping everything in front of them. Where New Mexico gets at UTEP: 39th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 98th at generating havoc. New Mexico is also 50th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 97th.
How
UTEPattacks
UNM
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UTEP#1 of 138UNM#66 of 138
HowUNMattacksUTEP
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
UNM#39 of 138UTEP#98 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
UNM#50 of 138UTEP#97 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
UNM#60 of 138UTEP#101 of 138
The two teams
UTEP
UTEP is in year 3 under Scotty Walden. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 1st at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th on first and second down, and they are 137th in the push up front.
UTEP has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#1projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#25projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensefirst and second down#137projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#137projected
- Offensethrowing it#136projected
New Mexico
New Mexico is in year 2 under Jason Eck. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 14th at staying out of the backfield.
New Mexico has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#14projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#25projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1558, UTEP Elo 1163 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -25.1 (95% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UTEP132nd8thUNMUNM72nd126thUTEPThrough the air
UTEP130th6thUNMUNM111th98thUTEPOn the ground
UTEP109th24thUNMUNM26th112thUTEPStaying on the field
UTEP132nd10thUNMUNM53rd129thUTEPTaking care of it
UTEP68th1stUNMUNM31st88thUTEP
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNew Mexico leads 37–31–2 · 41% have been one-possession games
| UTEP | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.9 (#134) | CORE overall | +7.4 (#41) |
| -13 / +4 | offense / defense | -2 / -9 |
| -0.64 | points / drive | 4.11 |
| 4.00 | allowed / drive | 0.78 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 11% |
| -10 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UTEP vs. New Mexico?
Gridpex's model favors New Mexico with a 95% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UTEP vs. New Mexico?
The model projects New Mexico by 25.1.
What time is UTEP vs. New Mexico and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at University Stadium (NM).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →