USC vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds & Pick — Nov 28, 2026

Gridpex Model Prediction

Power rating (Elo)

UCLA 1322

USC 1871

Projected spread

UCLA +21.6

incl. home edge

Model pick

USC

94% to win

Market spread

—

sportsbook line

Model edge

None

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

UCLA (no market)

Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UCLA Elo 1322, USC Elo 1871) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCLA +21.6 (6% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Pregame Win Probability

Gridpex modelUSC 94% · UCLA 6%

Pick: USC

Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.

Season stats — 2025

USC2025 season · national rank shownUCLA

465.28th

Total yards / game

319.8120th

7.24th

Yards / play

5.2107th

296.05th

Passing yards / game

180.3115th

169.256th

Rushing yards / game

139.685th

51.3%5th

3rd down %

37.3%92nd

350.549th

Yards allowed / game

387.385th

40.1%80th

3rd down % allowed

55.2%136th

+254th

Turnover margin

-386th

5.860th

Penalties / game

7.5122nd

Key matchups · Pro

USC pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. UCLA pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge USC.
UCLA pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. USC pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge USC.
UCLA rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. USC rush defense (0.13 allowed) — edge UCLA.

FAQ

Who will win USC vs. UCLA?

Gridpex's model favors USC with a 94% win probability.

What's the predicted spread for USC vs. UCLA?

The model projects USC by 21.6.

What time is USC vs. UCLA and what channel is it on?

Time TBD, at Rose Bowl.

Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.

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Gridiron IQ Model

Pinned · the model's take

I make this USC at 94% to win, projecting USC by 21.6.