USC vs. Penn State Prediction, Odds & Pick

Gridpex Model Prediction

Power rating (Elo)

PSU 1954

USC 1871

Projected spread

PSU -4.6

incl. home edge

Model pick

PSU

63% to win

Market spread

—

sportsbook line

Model edge

None

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

63%

PSU (no market)

Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (PSU Elo 1954, USC Elo 1871) plus home-field advantage. That projects PSU -4.6 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Pregame Win Probability

Gridpex modelUSC 37% · PSU 63%

Pick: PSU

Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.

Season stats — 2025

USC2025 season · national rank shownPSU

465.28th

Total yards / game

362.086th

7.24th

Yards / play

5.861st

296.05th

Passing yards / game

187.6105th

169.256th

Rushing yards / game

174.450th

51.3%5th

3rd down %

43.6%33rd

350.549th

Yards allowed / game

327.625th

40.1%80th

3rd down % allowed

40.9%92nd

+254th

Turnover margin

+346th

5.860th

Penalties / game

4.18th

Key matchups · Pro

USC pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. PSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge USC.
PSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. USC pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge PSU.
PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. USC rush defense (0.13 allowed) — edge PSU.

FAQ

Who will win USC vs. Penn State?

Gridpex's model favors Penn State with a 63% win probability.

What's the predicted spread for USC vs. Penn State?

The model projects Penn State by 4.6.

What time is USC vs. Penn State and what channel is it on?

Time TBD, at Beaver Stadium.

Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.

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Gridiron IQ Model

Pinned · the model's take

I make this Penn State at 63% to win, projecting Penn State by 4.6.