UL Monroe vs. South Alabama Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where UL Monroe gets at South Alabama: 7th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 84th at keeping everything in front of them. Where South Alabama gets at UL Monroe: 42nd at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 114th at generating havoc. South Alabama is also 32nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 103rd.
How
ULMattacks
USA
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
ULM#7 of 138USA#84 of 138
HowUSAattacksULM
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
USA#42 of 138ULM#114 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
USA#32 of 138ULM#103 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
USA#67 of 138ULM#121 of 138
The two teams
UL Monroe
UL Monroe runs it: Bryant Vincent's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 7th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 130th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 128th at moving the ball on the ground.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+7.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UL Monroe has played 1 FBS opponent, but with much of the country still on non-conference openers there is no national field to measure that against yet — so this stays the projection until there is.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#7projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#130projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#128projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#125projected
South Alabama
South Alabama is in year 3 under Major Applewhite, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 32nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 112th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 107th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Alabama has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#112projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#107projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#107projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1391, ULM Elo 1076 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA -10.2 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ULM127th110thUSAUSA119th138thULMThrough the air
ULM133rd65thUSAUSA119th74thULMOn the ground
ULM127th10thUSAUSA29th113thULMStaying on the field
ULM130th1stUSAUSA79th107thULMTaking care of it
ULM1st53rdUSAUSA1st118thULM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouth Alabama leads 7–5 · South Alabama has won 4 straight · 17% have been one-possession games
| ULM | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| -24.8 (#138) | CORE overall | -4.8 (#84) |
| -11 / +14 | offense / defense | -0 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UL Monroe vs. South Alabama?
Gridpex's model favors South Alabama with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UL Monroe vs. South Alabama?
The model projects South Alabama by 10.2.
What time is UL Monroe vs. South Alabama and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →