UL Monroe vs. App State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where App State gets at UL Monroe: 48th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 103rd at stuffing runs at the line. UL Monroe projects no clear way in against App State. App State is also 87th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 125th.
How
APPattacks
ULM
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
APP#48 of 138ULM#103 of 138 - 2
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
APP#87 of 138ULM#125 of 138
The two teams
UL Monroe
UL Monroe runs it: Bryant Vincent's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 8th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 128th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 125th at keeping a clean pocket.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+7.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UL Monroe has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#8projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#128projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#125projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#125projected
App State
App State is in year 2 under Dowell Loggains. The strengths are defensive, led by 33rd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 117th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air, and they are 115th on early downs defensively.
App State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#33projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#117projected
- Defensefirst and second down#115projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#114projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (APP Elo 1325, ULM Elo 1079 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects APP -10.1 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ULM132nd70thAPPAPP23rd134thULMThrough the air
ULM135th81stAPPAPP25th120thULMOn the ground
ULM69th72ndAPPAPP35th138thULMStaying on the field
ULM133rd36thAPPAPP104th135thULMTaking care of it
ULM21st22ndAPPAPP21st76thULM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesApp State leads 7–1 · App State has won 4 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| ULM | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| -25.1 (#137) | CORE overall | -12.8 (#115) |
| -13 / +12 | offense / defense | -4 / +9 |
| 1.50 | points / drive | 2.08 |
| 4.40 | allowed / drive | 1.85 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -12 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UL Monroe vs. App State?
Gridpex's model favors App State with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UL Monroe vs. App State?
The model projects App State by 10.1.
What time is UL Monroe vs. App State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Kidd Brewer Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →