UConn vs. Temple Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where UConn gets at Temple: 52nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 131st at stuffing runs at the line. Where Temple gets at UConn: 66th on first and second down, against a unit 129th on early downs defensively. UConn is also 64th at running it, against a unit 128th.
How
CONNattacks
TEM
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
CONN#52 of 138TEM#131 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
CONN#64 of 138TEM#128 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
CONN#71 of 138TEM#123 of 138
HowTEMattacksCONN
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
TEM#66 of 138CONN#129 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
TEM#70 of 138CONN#132 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
TEM#77 of 138CONN#125 of 138
The two teams
UConn
UConn is in year 1 under Jason Candle, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 25th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 135th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UConn has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#25projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#136projected
- Defenserunning it#135projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#133projected
Temple
Temple is in year 2 under K.C. Keeler. The way in is 132nd at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 131st at shutting down the ground game.
Temple has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#132projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#131projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#129projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEM Elo 1293, CONN Elo 1412 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEM -3.8 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
CONN32nd87thTEMTEM87th59thCONNThrough the air
CONN52nd99thTEMTEM122nd108thCONNOn the ground
CONN54th49thTEMTEM46th50thCONNStaying on the field
CONN86th113thTEMTEM120th96thCONNTaking care of it
CONN95th30thTEMTEM68th118thCONN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTemple leads 10–6 · 31% have been one-possession games
| CONN | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.1 (#85) | CORE overall | -5.2 (#87) |
| -1 / +5 | offense / defense | -2 / +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UConn vs. Temple?
Gridpex's model favors Temple with a 59% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UConn vs. Temple?
The model projects Temple by 3.8.
What time is UConn vs. Temple and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Lincoln Financial Field.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →