UCLA vs. Maryland Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Maryland gets at UCLA: 77th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 129th at closing out passing downs. UCLA projects no clear way in against Maryland. Maryland is also 76th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 127th.
How
MDattacks
UCLA
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
MD#77 of 138UCLA#129 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
MD#76 of 138UCLA#127 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
MD#67 of 138UCLA#113 of 138
The two teams
UCLA
UCLA is in year 1 under Bob Chesney. The strengths are defensive, led by 5th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 134th at shutting down the ground game, and they are 131st on early downs defensively.
UCLA has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#5projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#134projected
- Defensefirst and second down#131projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#129projected
Maryland
Maryland throws it: Mike Locksley's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 22nd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 107th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Maryland has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#22projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensefirst and second down#107projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1496, UCLA Elo 1479 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD -0.9 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UCLA10th10thMDMD31st62ndUCLAThrough the air
UCLA103rd18thMDMD26th124thUCLAOn the ground
UCLA17th6thMDMD27th77thUCLAStaying on the field
UCLA24th34thMDMD22nd124thUCLATaking care of it
UCLA31st14thMDMD1st30thUCLA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UCLA | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.9 (#29) | CORE overall | +1.6 (#65) |
| +9 / -4 | offense / defense | -2 / -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UCLA vs. Maryland?
Gridpex's model favors Maryland with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UCLA vs. Maryland?
The model projects Maryland by 0.9.
What time is UCLA vs. Maryland and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at SECU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →