Tulsa vs. UTSA Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Tulsa gets at UTSA: 50th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 128th at keeping everything in front of them. Where UTSA gets at Tulsa: 18th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 91st at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. UTSA is also 22nd at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 81st.
How
TLSAattacks
UTSA
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
TLSA#50 of 138UTSA#128 of 138
HowUTSAattacksTLSA
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
UTSA#18 of 138TLSA#91 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
UTSA#22 of 138TLSA#81 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
UTSA#24 of 138TLSA#82 of 138
The two teams
Tulsa
Tulsa is in year 2 under Tre Lamb. The way in is 126th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 109th at throwing it.
Tulsa has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#126projected
- Offensethrowing it#109projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#106projected
UTSA
UTSA is in year 7 under Jeff Traylor, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 17th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 128th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UTSA has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#17projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#18projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#22projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#128projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTSA Elo 1530, TLSA Elo 1277 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTSA -8.2 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TLSA59th95thUTSAUTSA36th44thTLSAThrough the air
TLSA69th88thUTSAUTSA50th104thTLSAOn the ground
TLSA90th127thUTSAUTSA48th82ndTLSAStaying on the field
TLSA135th108thUTSAUTSA123rd54thTLSATaking care of it
TLSA31st6thUTSAUTSA1st14thTLSA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TLSA | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.1 (#69) | CORE overall | +4.7 (#52) |
| -4 / -4 | offense / defense | +3 / -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Tulsa vs. UTSA?
Gridpex's model favors UTSA with a 70% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Tulsa vs. UTSA?
The model projects UTSA by 8.2.
What time is Tulsa vs. UTSA and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Alamodome.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →