Texas State vs. Oregon State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Texas State gets at Oregon State: 5th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 107th at closing out passing downs. Oregon State projects no clear way in against Texas State. Texas State is also 17th at throwing it, against a unit 108th.
How
TXSTattacks
ORST
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected · 2 games in
TXST56%#5 of 138ORST48%#107 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · 20% this season, 2 games
TXST+0.36#17 of 138ORST+0.44#108 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · 20% this season, 2 games
TXST+0.12#12 of 138ORST+0.18#82 of 138
The two teams
Texas State
Texas State is in year 4 under G.J. Kinne, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 5th at surviving second and twelve. The way in is 116th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 105th at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+6.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Texas State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve56%#5 of 138
- Defensegetting stopped at the line27.3%#10 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.12#12 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.32#116 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points5.07#105 of 138
Oregon State
Oregon State is in year 1 under JaMarcus Shephard. The strengths are offensive, led by 24th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 128th at running it, and they are 119th at throwing it.
Oregon State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 15% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line4.8%#24 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it-0.07#128 of 138
- Offensethrowing it+0.29#119 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss21.6%#118 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1259, TXST Elo 1433 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST +8.6 (29% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TXST92nd130thORSTORST93rd112thTXSTThrough the air
TXST100th125thORSTORST5th128thTXSTOn the ground
TXST36th126thORSTORST137th99thTXSTStaying on the field
TXST23rd127thORSTORST121st111thTXSTTaking care of it
TXST133rd53rdORSTORST1st88thTXST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TXST | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 (#46) | CORE overall | -7.8 (#99) |
| +8 / +2 | offense / defense | -4 / +4 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 2.10 |
| 5.78 | allowed / drive | 3.09 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Texas State vs. Oregon State?
Gridpex's model favors Texas State with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Texas State vs. Oregon State?
The model projects Texas State by 8.6.
What time is Texas State vs. Oregon State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 7, 10:30 PM ET, at Reser Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →