Temple vs. Memphis Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Memphis gets at Temple: 20th at running it, against a unit 128th at defending the run. Temple projects no clear way in against Memphis. Memphis is also 31st in the push up front, against a unit 132nd.
How
MEMattacks
TEM
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
MEM#20 of 138TEM#128 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
MEM#31 of 138TEM#132 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
MEM#74 of 138TEM#129 of 138
The two teams
Temple
Temple is in year 2 under K.C. Keeler. The way in is 132nd at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 131st at shutting down the ground game.
Temple has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#132projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#131projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#129projected
Memphis
Memphis is in year 1 under Charles Huff, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 20th at running it. The way in is 105th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 104th at staying on schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −37.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Memphis has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#20projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#31projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#105projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#104projected
- Defensethrowing it#104projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1566, TEM Elo 1293 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM -8.8 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TEM87th119thMEMMEM20th87thTEMThrough the air
TEM122nd127thMEMMEM89th99thTEMOn the ground
TEM46th89thMEMMEM19th49thTEMStaying on the field
TEM120th57thMEMMEM81st113thTEMTaking care of it
TEM68th14thMEMMEM95th30thTEM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMemphis leads 5–4 · Memphis has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| TEM | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.2 (#87) | CORE overall | +10.4 (#36) |
| -2 / +3 | offense / defense | +9 / -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Temple vs. Memphis?
Gridpex's model favors Memphis with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Temple vs. Memphis?
The model projects Memphis by 8.8.
What time is Temple vs. Memphis and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →