South Alabama vs. Southern Miss Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where South Alabama gets at Southern Miss: 28th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 83rd at stuffing runs at the line. Where Southern Miss gets at South Alabama: 25th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 102nd at holding teams to field goals. South Alabama is also 58th at running it, against a unit 107th.
How
USAattacks
USM
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 25% this season, 2 games
USA13.8%#28 of 138USM18.2%#83 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · 24% this season, 2 games
USA+0.17#58 of 138USM+0.24#107 of 138
HowUSMattacksUSA
- 1
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected · 1 game in
USM6.22#25 of 138USA3.30#102 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected · 1 game in
USM+0.20#59 of 138USA+0.56#128 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 43% this season, 1 game
USM1.10#80 of 138USA1.85#137 of 138
The two teams
South Alabama
South Alabama is in year 3 under Major Applewhite, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 28th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 137th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 128th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Alabama has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 22% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line13.8%#28 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.85#137 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.56#128 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.11#105 of 138
Southern Miss
Southern Miss is in year 1 under Blake Anderson, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 25th at turning trips inside the 40 into points. The way in is 107th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Southern Miss has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 20% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points6.22#25 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it+0.24#107 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1285, USA Elo 1391 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM -12.1 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USA99th110thUSMUSM108th133rdUSAThrough the air
USA71st62ndUSMUSM96th65thUSAOn the ground
USA36th132ndUSMUSM56th81stUSAStaying on the field
USA31st101stUSMUSM73rd48thUSATaking care of it
USA1st5thUSMUSM74th76thUSA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USA | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.1 (#86) | CORE overall | -16.5 (#127) |
| +8 / +12 | offense / defense | -9 / +8 |
| 2.67 | points / drive | -0.18 |
| 2.80 | allowed / drive | 3.44 |
| 0% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win South Alabama vs. Southern Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Southern Miss with a 78% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for South Alabama vs. Southern Miss?
The model projects Southern Miss by 12.1.
What time is South Alabama vs. Southern Miss and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at M. M. Roberts Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →