Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (STAN Elo 1335, SMU Elo 1852) plus home-field advantage. That projects STAN +20.8 (6% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pick: SMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Gridpex's model favors SMU with a 94% win probability.
The model projects SMU by 20.8.
Time TBD, at Stanford Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this SMU at 94% to win, projecting SMU by 20.8.
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