Mackay StadiumMW+Conference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NEV 1277
SJSU 1146
Projected spread
NEV -5.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
NEV
65% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
65%
NEV (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NEV Elo 1277, SJSU Elo 1146) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEV -5.3 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelSJSU 35% · NEV 65%
Pick: NEV
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
SJSU2025 season · national rank shownNEV
403.350th
Total yards / game
302.4126th6.038th
Yards / play
5.0Key matchups · Pro
- NEV pass offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. SJSU pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge SJSU.
- SJSU rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. NEV rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge NEV.
- SJSU pass offense (0.22 PPA) vs. NEV pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge SJSU.
FAQ
Who will win San José State vs. Nevada?
Gridpex's model favors Nevada with a 65% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for San José State vs. Nevada?
The model projects Nevada by 5.3.
What time is San José State vs. Nevada and what channel is it on?
Time TBD on MW+, at Mackay Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Nevada at 65% to win, projecting Nevada by 5.3.