San Diego State vs. Oregon State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where San Diego State gets at Oregon State: 33rd at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 122nd at holding teams to field goals. Where Oregon State gets at San Diego State: 29th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 125th at stuffing runs at the line. San Diego State is also 26th at running it, against a unit 97th.
How
SDSUattacks
ORST
- 1
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected · 1 game in
SDSU4.58#33 of 138ORST4.13#122 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected · 1 game in
SDSU+0.13#26 of 138ORST+0.14#97 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected · 1 game in
SDSU16.5%#24 of 138ORST17.2%#77 of 138
HowORSTattacksSDSU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 24% this season, 2 games
ORST7.9%#29 of 138SDSU8.3%#125 of 138
The two teams
San Diego State
San Diego State runs it: Sean Lewis's offenses have been run-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 14th at defending the pass. The way in is 125th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 105th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
San Diego State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 21% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensethrowing it+0.14#14 of 138
- Defensesurviving second and twelve30%#14 of 138
- Offensethe push the line gets3.02#15 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line8.3%#125 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.19#105 of 138
Oregon State
Oregon State is in year 1 under JaMarcus Shephard. The strengths are offensive, led by 11th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th at running it, and they are 126th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Oregon State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.63#11 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line7.9%#29 of 138
Soft spots
- Offenserunning it-0.08#136 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points3.45#126 of 138
- Offensethe push the line gets2.86#123 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1285, SDSU Elo 1469 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST +14.7 (18% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SDSU123rd112thORSTORST71st65thSDSUThrough the air
SDSU133rd114thORSTORST3rd84thSDSUOn the ground
SDSU50th120thORSTORST137th105thSDSUStaying on the field
SDSU104th131stORSTORST128th75thSDSUTaking care of it
SDSU104th46thORSTORST21st22ndSDSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SDSU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.8 (#56) | CORE overall | -1.5 (#78) |
| -7 / -10 | offense / defense | +2 / +3 |
| 0.91 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 2.80 | allowed / drive | 2.88 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -23 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win San Diego State vs. Oregon State?
Gridpex's model favors San Diego State with a 82% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for San Diego State vs. Oregon State?
The model projects San Diego State by 14.7.
What time is San Diego State vs. Oregon State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 10, 6:00 PM ET, at Reser Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →