Jones AT&T Stadium
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TTU 2056
SHSU 994
Projected spread
TTU -52
incl. home edge
Model pick
TTU
100% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
100%
TTU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TTU Elo 2056, SHSU Elo 994) plus home-field advantage. That projects TTU -52 (100% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelSHSU 0% · TTU 100%
Pick: TTU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
SHSU2025 season · national rank shownTTU
316.8121st
Total yards / game
461.610th5.0118th
Yards / play
6.3Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. TTU rush defense (-0.16 allowed) — edge SHSU.
- TTU rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge TTU.
- TTU pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.
FAQ
Who will win Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech?
Gridpex's model favors Texas Tech with a 100% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech?
The model projects Texas Tech by 52.0.
What time is Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Jones AT&T Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Texas Tech at 100% to win, projecting Texas Tech by 52.0.