Rice vs. North Texas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where North Texas gets at Rice: 33rd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 138th at keeping everything in front of them. Rice projects no clear way in against North Texas. North Texas is also 18th in the push up front, against a unit 109th.
How
UNTattacks
RICE
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UNT#33 of 138RICE#138 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
UNT#18 of 138RICE#109 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
UNT#22 of 138RICE#110 of 138
The two teams
Rice
Rice is in year 2 under Scott Abell. The way in is 138th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 132nd at staying on schedule through the air.
Rice has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#138projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#132projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#132projected
North Texas
North Texas is in year 1 under Neal Brown, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 18th in the push up front. The way in is 133rd at defending the run, and they are 133rd at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
North Texas has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#18projected
- Offenserunning it#22projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#33projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#133projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#133projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#131projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1699, RICE Elo 1147 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT -15.6 (84% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
RICE122nd100thUNTUNT72nd110thRICEThrough the air
RICE138th85thUNTUNT61st98thRICEOn the ground
RICE12th70thUNTUNT68th88thRICEStaying on the field
RICE56th116thUNTUNT47th108thRICETaking care of it
RICE104th22ndUNTUNT21st108thRICE
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNorth Texas leads 9–5 · North Texas has won 4 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| RICE | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.5 (#132) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#50) |
| -14 / +6 | offense / defense | +10 / +4 |
| -0.70 | points / drive | 3.00 |
| 5.00 | allowed / drive | 2.76 |
| 60% | three-and-outs | 15% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Rice vs. North Texas?
Gridpex's model favors North Texas with a 84% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Rice vs. North Texas?
The model projects North Texas by 15.6.
What time is Rice vs. North Texas and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at DATCU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →