Hard Rock StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MIA 2014
PITT 1614
Projected spread
MIA -16.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
MIA
89% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
89%
MIA (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MIA Elo 2014, PITT Elo 1614) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIA -16.4 (89% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelPITT 11% · MIA 89%
Pick: MIA
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
PITT2025 season · national rank shownMIA
391.267th
Total yards / game
404.948th5.769th
Yards / play
6.1Key matchups · Pro
- MIA pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. PITT pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge MIA.
- PITT pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. MIA pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge PITT.
- MIA rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. PITT rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge MIA.
FAQ
Who will win Pittsburgh vs. Miami?
Gridpex's model favors Miami with a 89% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Pittsburgh vs. Miami?
The model projects Miami by 16.4.
What time is Pittsburgh vs. Miami and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Hard Rock Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Miami at 89% to win, projecting Miami by 16.4.