Husky StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WASH 1866
PSU 1954
Projected spread
WASH -1
incl. home edge
Model pick
WASH
53% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
53%
WASH (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WASH Elo 1866, PSU Elo 1954) plus home-field advantage. That projects WASH -1 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelPSU 47% · WASH 53%
Pick: WASH
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
PSU2025 season · national rank shownWASH
362.086th
Total yards / game
411.238th5.861st
Yards / play
6.4Key matchups · Pro
- PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. WASH rush defense (-0.03 allowed) — edge PSU.
- WASH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. PSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge WASH.
- WASH rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. PSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge WASH.
FAQ
Who will win Penn State vs. Washington?
Gridpex's model favors Washington with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Penn State vs. Washington?
The model projects Washington by 1.0.
What time is Penn State vs. Washington and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Husky Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Washington at 53% to win, projecting Washington by 1.0.