Oregon State vs. UTEP Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Oregon State gets at UTEP: 87th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 127th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where UTEP gets at Oregon State: 35th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 112th at keeping everything in front of them.
How
ORSTattacks
UTEP
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected · 1 game in
ORST44%#87 of 138UTEP64%#127 of 138
HowUTEPattacksORST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 22% this season, 1 game
UTEP0.87#35 of 138ORST1.25#112 of 138
The two teams
Oregon State
Oregon State is in year 1 under JaMarcus Shephard. The strengths are offensive, led by 24th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 128th at running it, and they are 119th at throwing it.
Oregon State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 15% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line4.8%#24 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it-0.07#128 of 138
- Offensethrowing it+0.29#119 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss21.6%#118 of 138
UTEP
UTEP is in year 3 under Scotty Walden. The strengths are offensive, led by 35th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 138th at throwing it, and they are 138th on first and second down.
UTEP has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 8% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.87#35 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it-0.02#138 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down46%#138 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve11%#138 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTEP Elo 1163, ORST Elo 1260 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTEP +8.2 (29% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ORST93rd126thUTEPUTEP132nd130thORSTThrough the air
ORST5th98thUTEPUTEP130th125thORSTOn the ground
ORST137th112thUTEPUTEP109th126thORSTStaying on the field
ORST121st129thUTEPUTEP132nd127thORSTTaking care of it
ORST1st88thUTEPUTEP68th53rdORST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ORST | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.8 (#99) | CORE overall | -16.9 (#134) |
| -4 / +4 | offense / defense | -13 / +4 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | -0.64 |
| 3.09 | allowed / drive | 4.00 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +12 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Oregon State vs. UTEP?
Gridpex's model favors Oregon State with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Oregon State vs. UTEP?
The model projects Oregon State by 8.2.
What time is Oregon State vs. UTEP and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM ET, at Sun Bowl.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →