FirstBank StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
VAN 1880
MISS 2009
Projected spread
VAN +2
incl. home edge
Model pick
MISS
56% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
44%
VAN (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (VAN Elo 1880, MISS Elo 2009) plus home-field advantage. That projects VAN +2 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMISS 56% · VAN 44%
Pick: MISS
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MISS2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedVAN
Offense
0.30
PPA / play
0.4448%
Success rate
52%1.29
Key matchups · Pro
- VAN pass offense (0.55 PPA) vs. MISS pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge VAN.
- VAN rush offense (0.35 PPA) vs. MISS rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge VAN.
- MISS rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. VAN rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge MISS.
FAQ
Who will win Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 56% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt?
The model projects Ole Miss by 2.0.
What time is Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at FirstBank Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ole Miss at 56% to win, projecting Ole Miss by 2.0.