Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (HOU Elo 1512, OKST Elo 1110) plus home-field advantage. That projects HOU -22 (95% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Availability-Adjusted Projection
Availability impact
Model estimateNo ruled-out starters
- Out Stacy Sneed (RB)not quantified
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: HOU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Key matchups · Pro
- HOU rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. OKST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge OKST.
- OKST pass offense (0.07 PPA) vs. HOU pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge HOU.
- OKST rush offense (-0.04 PPA) vs. HOU rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge HOU.
FAQ
Who will win Oklahoma State vs. Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Houston with a 95% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Oklahoma State vs. Houston?
The model projects Houston by 22.0.
What time is Oklahoma State vs. Houston and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at TDECU Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Houston at 95% to win, projecting Houston by 22.0.