Oklahoma State vs. Arizona State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Arizona State gets at Oklahoma State: 18th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 114th at keeping everything in front of them. Oklahoma State projects no clear way in against Arizona State. Arizona State is also 35th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 121st.
How
ASUattacks
OKST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 43% this season, 1 game
ASU1.46#18 of 138OKST1.33#114 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected · 1 game in
ASU54%#35 of 138OKST17%#121 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected · 1 game in
ASU57%#65 of 138OKST34%#122 of 138
The two teams
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State throws it: Eric Morris's offenses have been pass-leaning across 3 seasons. The way in is 138th at running it, and they are 137th at throwing it.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+15.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is +8.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Oklahoma State has played 3 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offenserunning it+0.06#138 of 138
- Offensethrowing it+0.02#137 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points2.57#137 of 138
Arizona State
Arizona State is in year 4 under Kenny Dillingham, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 18th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+8.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arizona State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 18% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.46#18 of 138
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.01#19 of 138
- Defensesurviving second and twelve11%#30 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1531, OKST Elo 1274 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU -10.2 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
OKST104th29thASUASU15th93rdOKSTThrough the air
OKST35th14thASUASU8th71stOKSTOn the ground
OKST57th51stASUASU57th66thOKSTStaying on the field
OKST124th22ndASUASU92nd18thOKSTTaking care of it
OKST133rd108thASUASU124th76thOKST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| OKST | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.3 (#104) | CORE overall | +11.1 (#32) |
| -11 / -2 | offense / defense | +2 / -9 |
| 1.72 | points / drive | 0.46 |
| 2.00 | allowed / drive | 2.83 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Oklahoma State vs. Arizona State?
Gridpex's model favors Arizona State with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Oklahoma State vs. Arizona State?
The model projects Arizona State by 10.2.
What time is Oklahoma State vs. Arizona State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Mountain America Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →