Ohio vs. South Alabama Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Ohio gets at South Alabama: 4th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 101st at stuffing runs at the line. Where South Alabama gets at Ohio: 32nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 81st at stuffing runs at the line. Ohio is also 25th at running it, against a unit 105th.
How
OHIOattacks
USA
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
OHIO#4 of 138USA#101 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
OHIO#25 of 138USA#105 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
OHIO#24 of 138USA#97 of 138
HowUSAattacksOHIO
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
USA#32 of 138OHIO#81 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
USA#42 of 138OHIO#75 of 138
The two teams
Ohio
Ohio is in year 1 under John Hauser. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at staying out of the backfield.
Ohio has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#4projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#24projected
- Offenserunning it#25projected
South Alabama
South Alabama is in year 3 under Major Applewhite, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 32nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 112th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 107th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Alabama has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#112projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#107projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#107projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1390, OHIO Elo 1318 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA +4.6 (38% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
OHIO115th110thUSAUSA119th128thOHIOThrough the air
OHIO113th65thUSAUSA119th119thOHIOOn the ground
OHIO85th10thUSAUSA29th129thOHIOStaying on the field
OHIO81st1stUSAUSA79th137thOHIOTaking care of it
OHIO31st53rdUSAUSA1st118thOHIO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| OHIO | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.9 (#109) | CORE overall | -4.8 (#84) |
| -2 / +8 | offense / defense | -0 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Ohio vs. South Alabama?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio with a 62% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ohio vs. South Alabama?
The model projects Ohio by 4.6.
What time is Ohio vs. South Alabama and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET, at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →