Notre Dame vs. BYU Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 8.4 toward 
BYU
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  ND −10 | ND −1.6 |
| BYU win | 22% | 46% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Notre Dame gets at BYU: 14th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 63rd at keeping everything in front of them. BYU projects no clear way in against Notre Dame.
HowNDattacksBYU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
ND#14 of 138BYU#63 of 138
The two teams
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is in year 6 under Marcus Freeman, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Notre Dame has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#3projected
- Offenserunning it#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#4projected
BYU
BYU is in year 11 under Kalani Sitake, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 125th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
BYU has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#6projected
- Offensefirst and second down#9projected
- Offenserunning it#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#125projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BYU Elo 1682, ND Elo 2110 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BYU +1.6 (46% to win) — 8.4 points clear of BYU's market line of +10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ND48th45thBYUBYU33rd32ndNDThrough the air
ND32nd63rdBYUBYU84th36thNDOn the ground
ND107th28thBYUBYU34th20thNDStaying on the field
ND49th85thBYUBYU5th42ndNDTaking care of it
ND1st6thBYUBYU1st3rdND
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 7–2 · Notre Dame has won 4 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| ND | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| +26.4 (#6) | CORE overall | +12.1 (#34) |
| +14 / -13 | offense / defense | +7 / -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Notre Dame vs. BYU?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 54% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Notre Dame vs. BYU?
The model projects Notre Dame by 1.6.
What time is Notre Dame vs. BYU and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →