LaVell Edwards Stadium
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BYU 1750
ND 2243
Projected spread
BYU +11.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
80% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
20%
BYU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (BYU Elo 1750, ND Elo 2243) plus home-field advantage. That projects BYU +11.1 (20% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelND 80% · BYU 20%
Pick: ND
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
ND2025 season · national rank shownBYU
459.512th
Total yards / game
400.355th7.52nd
Yards / play
6.0Key matchups · Pro
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. BYU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge ND.
- BYU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge BYU.
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. BYU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge ND.
FAQ
Who will win Notre Dame vs. BYU?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 80% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Notre Dame vs. BYU?
The model projects Notre Dame by 11.1.
What time is Notre Dame vs. BYU and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Notre Dame at 80% to win, projecting Notre Dame by 11.1.