Ohio StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OSU 2138
NU 1574
Projected spread
OSU -25.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
OSU
97% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
97%
OSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (OSU Elo 2138, NU Elo 1574) plus home-field advantage. That projects OSU -25.9 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelNU 3% · OSU 97%
Pick: OSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
NU2025 season · national rank shownOSU
346.898th
Total yards / game
423.026th5.589th
Yards / play
6.7Key matchups · Pro
- OSU pass offense (0.54 PPA) vs. NU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge OSU.
- NU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. OSU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge NU.
- NU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. OSU pass defense (0.05 allowed) — edge NU.
FAQ
Who will win Northwestern vs. Ohio State?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio State with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Northwestern vs. Ohio State?
The model projects Ohio State by 25.9.
What time is Northwestern vs. Ohio State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Ohio Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ohio State at 97% to win, projecting Ohio State by 25.9.