North Texas vs. UTSA Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where North Texas gets at UTSA: 40th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 128th at keeping everything in front of them. Where UTSA gets at North Texas: 22nd at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 125th at holding teams to field goals. North Texas is also 13th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 75th.
How
UNTattacks
UTSA
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UNT#40 of 138UTSA#128 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
UNT#13 of 138UTSA#75 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
UNT#15 of 138UTSA#66 of 138
HowUTSAattacksUNT
- 1
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
UTSA#22 of 138UNT#125 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
UTSA#30 of 138UNT#130 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
UTSA#28 of 138UNT#116 of 138
The two teams
North Texas
North Texas is in year 1 under Neal Brown, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th in the push up front. The way in is 133rd at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 132nd at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
North Texas has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#6projected
- Offenserunning it#15projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#133projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#132projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#125projected
UTSA
UTSA is in year 7 under Jeff Traylor, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 17th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 128th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UTSA has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#17projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#18projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#22projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#128projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTSA Elo 1530, UNT Elo 1694 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTSA -2.9 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UNT68th95thUTSAUTSA36th96thUNTThrough the air
UNT62nd88thUTSAUTSA50th84thUNTOn the ground
UNT64th127thUTSAUTSA48th75thUNTStaying on the field
UNT52nd108thUTSAUTSA123rd109thUNTTaking care of it
UNT31st6thUTSAUTSA1st14thUNT
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUTSA leads 8–6 · 50% have been one-possession games
| UNT | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.4 (#77) | CORE overall | +4.7 (#52) |
| +6 / +8 | offense / defense | +3 / -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win North Texas vs. UTSA?
Gridpex's model favors UTSA with a 58% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Texas vs. UTSA?
The model projects UTSA by 2.9.
What time is North Texas vs. UTSA and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Alamodome.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →