Nebraska vs. Iowa Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Iowa gets at Nebraska: 20th in the push up front, against a unit 122nd at holding the line of scrimmage. Nebraska projects no clear way in against Iowa. Iowa is also 29th at running it, against a unit 127th.
How
IOWAattacks
NEB
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
IOWA#20 of 138NEB#122 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
IOWA#29 of 138NEB#127 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
IOWA#29 of 138NEB#96 of 138
The two teams
Nebraska
Nebraska is in year 4 under Matt Rhule, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 127th at defending the run, and they are 123rd at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Nebraska has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#127projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#123projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#122projected
Iowa
Iowa is in year 13 under Kirk Ferentz, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 8th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 137th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−4.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −43.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Iowa has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#8projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#13projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#17projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#137projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1841, NEB Elo 1715 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -1.7 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NEB35th3rdIOWAIOWA51st61stNEBThrough the air
NEB43rd16thIOWAIOWA81st55thNEBOn the ground
NEB24th1stIOWAIOWA13th89thNEBStaying on the field
NEB9th13thIOWAIOWA67th85thNEBTaking care of it
NEB1st53rdIOWAIOWA31st88thNEB
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNebraska leads 26–20–1 · Iowa has won 3 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| NEB | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.2 (#32) | CORE overall | +20.7 (#10) |
| +8 / -4 | offense / defense | +6 / -14 |
| 4.46 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 2.00 | allowed / drive | -0.50 |
| 9% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Nebraska vs. Iowa?
Gridpex's model favors Iowa with a 55% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Nebraska vs. Iowa?
The model projects Iowa by 1.7.
What time is Nebraska vs. Iowa and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 27, 12:00 PM ET, at Kinnick Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →