Gillette StadiumNeutral site
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ND 2243
NAVY 1575
Projected spread
ND -22
neutral site
Model pick
ND
95% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
95%
ND (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ND Elo 2243, NAVY Elo 1575) on a neutral field. That projects ND -22 (95% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelNAVY 5% · ND 95%
Pick: ND
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
NAVY2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedND
Offense
0.30
PPA / play
0.3649%
Success rate
49%1.24
Key matchups · Pro
- NAVY pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge NAVY.
- NAVY rush offense (0.28 PPA) vs. ND rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge NAVY.
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. NAVY rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge ND.
FAQ
Who will win Navy vs. Notre Dame?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 95% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Navy vs. Notre Dame?
The model projects Notre Dame by 22.0.
What time is Navy vs. Notre Dame and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM, at Gillette Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Notre Dame at 95% to win, projecting Notre Dame by 22.0.