Missouri vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Missouri gets at Ole Miss: 12th at running it, against a unit 74th at defending the run. Where Ole Miss gets at Missouri: 38th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 73rd at keeping everything in front of them. Missouri is also 28th in the push up front, against a unit 75th.
How
MIZattacks
MISS
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
MIZ#12 of 138MISS#74 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
MIZ#28 of 138MISS#75 of 138
HowMISSattacksMIZ
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MISS#38 of 138MIZ#73 of 138
The two teams
Missouri
Missouri is in year 7 under Eli Drinkwitz, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 6th on early downs defensively.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −33.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Missouri has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensefirst and second down#6projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#9projected
- Offenserunning it#12projected
Ole Miss
Ole Miss is in year 1 under Pete Golding. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at staying on schedule through the air.
Ole Miss has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#7projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#8projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1880, MIZ Elo 1703 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -12.1 (79% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MIZ38th125thMISSMISS65th27thMIZThrough the air
MIZ22nd126thMISSMISS17th38thMIZOn the ground
MIZ51st105thMISSMISS74th39thMIZStaying on the field
MIZ35th101stMISSMISS94th16thMIZTaking care of it
MIZ68th118thMISSMISS68th30thMIZ
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMissouri leads 7–1 · Missouri has won 6 straight
| MIZ | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.8 (#24) | CORE overall | +13.3 (#26) |
| +4 / -10 | offense / defense | +14 / +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Missouri vs. Ole Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 79% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Missouri vs. Ole Miss?
The model projects Ole Miss by 12.1.
What time is Missouri vs. Ole Miss and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →