Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MISS 2009
MIZ 1750
Projected spread
MISS -12.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
MISS
82% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
82%
MISS (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MISS Elo 2009, MIZ Elo 1750) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -12.3 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMIZ 18% · MISS 82%
Pick: MISS
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
MIZ2025 season · national rank shownMISS
416.831st
Total yards / game
490.12nd5.946th
Yards / play
6.7Key matchups · Pro
- MISS pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. MIZ pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge MISS.
- MISS rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. MIZ rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge MISS.
- MIZ pass offense (0.18 PPA) vs. MISS pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge MIZ.
FAQ
Who will win Missouri vs. Ole Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 82% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Missouri vs. Ole Miss?
The model projects Ole Miss by 12.3.
What time is Missouri vs. Ole Miss and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ole Miss at 82% to win, projecting Ole Miss by 12.3.