Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 8.4 toward 
MISS
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | MISS −14.5 | MISS −22.9 |
| MISS win | 82% | 94% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Mississippi State gets at Ole Miss: 42nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 101st at keeping everything in front of them. Where Ole Miss gets at Mississippi State: 19th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 112th at shutting down the ground game. Ole Miss is also 11th on first and second down, against a unit 91st.
How
MSSTattacksMISS
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MSST#42 of 138MISS#101 of 138
HowMISSattacksMSST
- 1
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
MISS#19 of 138MSST#112 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
MISS#11 of 138MSST#91 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
MISS#49 of 138MSST#126 of 138
The two teams
Mississippi State
Mississippi State is in year 3 under Jeff Lebby. The way in is 126th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 112th at shutting down the ground game.
Mississippi State has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#126projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#112projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#104projected
Ole Miss
Ole Miss is in year 1 under Pete Golding. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at staying on schedule through the air.
Ole Miss has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#7projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#8projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1880, MSST Elo 1651 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -22.9 (94% to win) — 8.4 points clear of MISS's market line of -14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MSST11th125thMISSMISS65th46thMSSTThrough the air
MSST24th126thMISSMISS17th77thMSSTOn the ground
MSST10th105thMISSMISS74th32ndMSSTStaying on the field
MSST29th101stMISSMISS94th26thMSSTTaking care of it
MSST31st118thMISSMISS68th118thMSST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOle Miss leads 67–47–5 · Ole Miss has won 3 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| MSST | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.2 (#14) | CORE overall | +13.3 (#26) |
| +11 / -9 | offense / defense | +14 / +1 |
| 5.17 | points / drive | 3.15 |
| 1.08 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 0% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +13 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 94% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss?
The model projects Ole Miss by 22.9.
What time is Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 27, 12:00 PM ET, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →