Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)Conference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
IU 2346
MINN 1516
Projected spread
IU -34.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
IU
99% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
99%
IU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (IU Elo 2346, MINN Elo 1516) plus home-field advantage. That projects IU -34.3 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMINN 1% · IU 99%
Pick: IU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MINN2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedIU
Offense
0.13
PPA / play
0.3240%
Success rate
51%1.20
Key matchups · Pro
- IU pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. MINN pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge IU.
- MINN rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. IU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge MINN.
- IU rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. MINN rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge IU.
FAQ
Who will win Minnesota vs. Indiana?
Gridpex's model favors Indiana with a 99% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Minnesota vs. Indiana?
The model projects Indiana by 34.3.
What time is Minnesota vs. Indiana and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN).
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Indiana at 99% to win, projecting Indiana by 34.3.