Michigan vs. Minnesota Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Michigan gets at Minnesota: 18th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 105th at closing out passing downs. Minnesota projects no clear way in against Michigan. Michigan is also 26th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 103rd.
How
MICHattacks
MINN
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
MICH#18 of 138MINN#105 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
MICH#26 of 138MINN#103 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
MICH#8 of 138MINN#82 of 138
The two teams
Michigan
Michigan is in year 1 under Kyle Whittingham, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 6th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 127th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Michigan has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#6projected
- Offenserunning it#8projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#9projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#127projected
Minnesota
Minnesota runs it: P.J. Fleck's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The way in is 116th in the push up front, and they are 110th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −36.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Minnesota has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Offensethe push the line gets#116projected
- Offenserunning it#110projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#105projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1443, MICH Elo 1698 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN +0.3 (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MICH110th83rdMINNMINN76th36thMICHThrough the air
MICH120th42ndMINNMINN27th35thMICHOn the ground
MICH96th103rdMINNMINN125th75thMICHStaying on the field
MICH115th83rdMINNMINN35th72ndMICHTaking care of it
MICH95th88thMINNMINN31st53rdMICH
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan leads 78–25–3 · Michigan has won 5 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| MICH | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.0 (#19) | CORE overall | -0.2 (#72) |
| +8 / -9 | offense / defense | -1 / -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Michigan vs. Minnesota?
Gridpex's model favors Minnesota with a 50% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Michigan vs. Minnesota?
The model projects Michigan by 0.3.
What time is Michigan vs. Minnesota and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Huntington Bank Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →