Maryland vs. USC Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where USC gets at Maryland: 4th in the push up front, against a unit 86th at holding the line of scrimmage. Maryland projects no clear way in against USC. USC is also 3rd on first and second down, against a unit 80th.
How
USCattacks
MD
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
USC#4 of 138MD#86 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
USC#3 of 138MD#80 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
USC#7 of 138MD#83 of 138
The two teams
Maryland
Maryland throws it: Mike Locksley's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 22nd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 107th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Maryland has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#22projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensefirst and second down#107projected
USC
USC throws it: Lincoln Riley's offenses have been pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 3rd at throwing it.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
USC has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethrowing it#3projected
- Offensefirst and second down#3projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#4projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1835, MD Elo 1496 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -20.2 (92% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MD31st57thUSCUSC26th10thMDThrough the air
MD26th50thUSCUSC4th18thMDOn the ground
MD27th25thUSCUSC74th6thMDStaying on the field
MD22nd60thUSCUSC6th34thMDTaking care of it
MD1st53rdUSCUSC95th14thMD
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MD | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.6 (#65) | CORE overall | +32.7 (#2) |
| -2 / -3 | offense / defense | +22 / -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Maryland vs. USC?
Gridpex's model favors USC with a 92% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Maryland vs. USC?
The model projects USC by 20.2.
What time is Maryland vs. USC and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →