Ohio StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OSU 2138
MD 1387
Projected spread
OSU -32.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
OSU
99% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
99%
OSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (OSU Elo 2138, MD Elo 1387) plus home-field advantage. That projects OSU -32.1 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMD 1% · OSU 99%
Pick: OSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
MD2025 season · national rank shownOSU
361.287th
Total yards / game
423.026th5.590th
Yards / play
6.7Key matchups · Pro
- OSU pass offense (0.54 PPA) vs. MD pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge OSU.
- MD pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. OSU pass defense (0.05 allowed) — edge MD.
- MD rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. OSU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge MD.
FAQ
Who will win Maryland vs. Ohio State?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio State with a 99% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Maryland vs. Ohio State?
The model projects Ohio State by 32.1.
What time is Maryland vs. Ohio State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Ohio Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ohio State at 99% to win, projecting Ohio State by 32.1.