Louisiana vs. UL Monroe Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Louisiana gets at UL Monroe: 74th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 124th at keeping everything in front of them. Where UL Monroe gets at Louisiana: 7th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 42nd at keeping everything in front of them.
How
ULattacks
ULM
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UL#74 of 138ULM#124 of 138
HowULMattacksUL
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
ULM#7 of 138UL#42 of 138
The two teams
Louisiana
Louisiana is in year 6 under Michael Desormeaux, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 128th on early downs defensively, and they are 128th at holding the line of scrimmage.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+3.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#128projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#128projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#126projected
UL Monroe
UL Monroe runs it: Bryant Vincent's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 7th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 130th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 128th at moving the ball on the ground.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+7.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UL Monroe has played 1 FBS opponent, but with much of the country still on non-conference openers there is no national field to measure that against yet — so this stays the projection until there is.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#7projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#130projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#128projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#125projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 1076, UL Elo 1389 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM +4.6 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UL37th138thULMULM127th17thULThrough the air
UL67th74thULMULM133rd47thULOn the ground
UL28th113thULMULM127th15thULStaying on the field
UL94th107thULMULM130th127thULTaking care of it
UL95th118thULMULM1st14thUL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLouisiana leads 25–16 · Louisiana has won 3 straight · 59% have been one-possession games
| UL | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.3 (#94) | CORE overall | -24.8 (#138) |
| -1 / +5 | offense / defense | -11 / +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Louisiana vs. UL Monroe?
Gridpex's model favors Louisiana with a 62% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe?
The model projects Louisiana by 4.6.
What time is Louisiana vs. UL Monroe and what channel is it on?
Thu, Nov 12, 9:00 PM ET, at Malone Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →