Louisiana vs. Georgia State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Louisiana gets at Georgia State: 79th at running it, against a unit 121st at defending the run. Where Georgia State gets at Louisiana: 95th in the push up front, against a unit 128th at holding the line of scrimmage. Louisiana is also 93rd at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 130th.
How
ULattacks
GAST
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
UL#79 of 138GAST#121 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
UL#93 of 138GAST#130 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
UL#96 of 138GAST#130 of 138
HowGASTattacksUL
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
GAST#95 of 138UL#128 of 138
The two teams
Louisiana
Louisiana is in year 6 under Michael Desormeaux, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 128th on early downs defensively, and they are 128th at holding the line of scrimmage.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+3.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#128projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#128projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#126projected
Georgia State
Georgia State is in year 2 under Dell McGee. The way in is 134th at closing out passing downs, and they are 130th at defending the pass.
Georgia State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#134projected
- Defensethrowing it#130projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#130projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1283, UL Elo 1389 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST +4.4 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UL37th34thGASTGAST17th17thULThrough the air
UL67th26thGASTGAST40th47thULOn the ground
UL28th38thGASTGAST14th15thULStaying on the field
UL94th44thGASTGAST16th127thULTaking care of it
UL95th118thGASTGAST1st14thUL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UL | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.3 (#94) | CORE overall | -8.1 (#100) |
| -1 / +5 | offense / defense | -3 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Louisiana vs. Georgia State?
Gridpex's model favors Louisiana with a 61% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Louisiana vs. Georgia State?
The model projects Louisiana by 4.4.
What time is Louisiana vs. Georgia State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Center Parc Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →